Monday, April 7, 2014

Future of Thousand Oaks and Real Estate

Joel Kotkin, a futurist—a person who studies the future and makes predictions about it based on current trends—addressed those questions and more during a discussion at the Civic Arts Plaza’s Scherr Forum on March 26.
Future of Thousand Oaks
Your basic bone structure is really good: Your schools are good, your community is safe, you have a good housing stock, you have a strong civic culture,” he said. “Maybe 50 years from now, Thousand Oaks may look a little bit different than it is now, but it will be as vital, maybe even more vital, than it is today
The population of Thousand Oaks increased almost 2 percent a year through the year 2000, but the growth rate has fallen to about 0.6 percent a year, Kotkin said, due in part to a decrease in the number of births in Ventura County.
But that downward population trend may reverse itself.
Kotkin predicted that more people, including millennials (the generation born between the early 1980s and the early 2000s) and foreign-born citizens, will flock to Thousand Oaks, creating neighborhoods with greater age and ethnic diversity.
“Millennials are more suburban oriented than their parents were,” he said. “The reason is most millennials grew up in the suburbs. So their frame of reference is Thousand Oaks. . . . Over time, millennials will be very attracted to a place like Thousand Oaks. Keep up your parks, keep up your cultural institutions. Those things will be very important.”
More people will work from home in the future, a shift that will also benefit suburbs like T.O., Kotkin said.
“That’s going to be great for Thousand Oaks,” he said, because “when you have people (who) work at home, it keeps your community busy. It’s another group of people who go to the local shops and restaurants during the day. Many suburbs have the problem that during the day they’re completely dead.”
Residents working from home will boost the housing market, the professor said.

And how are people selling their homes now? 

Well this is interesting, but all those people who used real estate agents, who were they? And how happy were they with their agents?

Recovery in the housing market is not without its side effects, particularly in major metro markets on the West Coast and in Florida. A look into 35 major markets by Zillow reveals that buyers making the median income in Southern California, the Bay Area, Portland (Oregon), Denver, and Miami face markets where more than half the available homes are beyond their price range—which could mean the beginning of a new housing bubble.
The largest gulf in affordability is in Miami, where 62.4 percent of houses are beyond the reach of the average resident. Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco each have more than 55 percent of their homes above the means of the average resident. Denver, San Jose, and Portland are at just over 50 percent.
Moreover, existing mortgage holders in these markets are typically spending more than 40 percent of their monthly income on their mortgages. Consequently, more buyers are forced to look farther out into peripheral markets surrounding metro hubs for more affordable homes.

CENTURY 21 Rolling Oaks.

Friday, March 28, 2014

Thousand Oaks Crime Rates 2013

Violent crimes in Thousand Oaks were down 11 percent and property crimes decreased 13 percent in 2013 due to a reduction in the number of grand and petty thefts and arson cases, according to TOPD Sgt. Eric Buschow.

The crime rate was 13.7 crimes per 1,000 residents in 2013, down from 15.8 crimes per 1,000 residents in 2012 and 15.2 in 2011 in T.O., the largest of the five cities in the county that contract for police services with the Ventura County Sheriff’s Office. The other cities are Camarillo, Moorpark, Fillmore and Ojai.

"Historically, Thousand Oaks has had a low crime rate for the size of the city,” Buschow said. “It speaks well to the community as a whole and community involvement, but there’s always room for improvement.”

There were 1,755 reported part I crimes in 2013, down from 2,015 crimes in 2012, according to figures released by the VCSO.

Read more about the national crime rates here.


CENTURY 21 Rolling Oaks.

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Renting vs. Buying

CENTURY 21 Rolling Oaks.

Trulia released their Rent vs. Buy Report last week. The report explained:

Homeownership remains cheaper than renting nationally and in all of the 100 largest metro areas. Rising mortgage rates and home prices have narrowed the gap over the past year, though rates have recently dropped and price gains are slowing. Now, at a 30-year fixed rate of 4.5%, buying is 38% cheaper than renting nationally, versus being 44% cheaper one year ago.

The rent versus buy math is different in each local market. Buying ranges from being just 5% cheaper than renting in Honolulu to being 66% cheaper than renting in Detroit.

The other interesting findings in the report include:
  • Even though prices increased sharply in many markets over the past year, low mortgage rates have kept homeownership from becoming more expensive than renting.
  • Some markets might tip in favor of renting this year as prices continue to rise faster than rents and if – as most economists expect – mortgage rates rise, due both to the strengthening economy and Fed tapering.
  • Nationally, rates would have to rise to 10.6% for renting to be cheaper than buying – and rates haven’t been that high since 1989.

Buying a home now makes sense. You can lock in a mortgage payment before home prices and mortgage rates rise as experts expect they will. If you rent, your housing expense will only continue to increase.

Friday, January 10, 2014

The Decline in Geographic Mobility

Geographic mobility, the movement of people within the United States, declined steadily over the past three decades. Between 1984 and 1985, 20.2% or one out of every five Americans over the age of 1 year moved. In the most recent period, between 2012 and 2013, the mover rate was only 11.7%. The mover rate is a measure of geographic mobility provided by the Census Bureau, calculated by taking the number of movers divided by the total population over 1 year old.

The decline in geographic mobility is due to a combination of factors. In a recent paper from the Federal Reserve discussion series, researchers find declining labor market transitions, rising home-ownership rates, and an aging population to be contributing factors.

To better understand the effect of an aging population on geographic mobility, it is useful to examine the distribution of movers by age. According to the Census Bureau, 23.2% of those 25 to 29 years moved between 2012 and 2013. After 30, the share declines with age and for those 65 years and older only 3.7% moved between 2012 and 2013.

The number of seniors is steadily increasing. By 2030, the Department of Health and Human Services forecasts that there will be 72.1 million seniors representing 19.3% of the total population.

Individuals between the ages of 25 to 29 years are of interest to housing sector because these individuals represent future first-time homebuyers. Individuals in this age group are typically transitioning into the labor, marriage, and housing market. The Census estimates the median age at first marriage in 2013 for men was 29 years and 26.6 years for woman. In addition, using data from the Census Bureau’s American Housing Survey, NAHB estimates the average of the first-time homebuyer to be 33.

Between 2012 and 2013 the mover rate for those 25 to 29 years was 23.2%. According to the Census, the most common discernible reason for moving between 2012 and 2013 for those between 25 and 29 was to establish own household at roughly 14.2%


CENTURY 21 Rolling Oaks.

Friday, December 20, 2013

Fun with Interactive Maps!

The United States Census Bureau presents:


A mapping tool which allows for the visualization of the share of residents, by census tract, who live in homes they own themselves. This data maps out where home-ownership rates are the highest and, conversely, where renters live.

(If the link above doesn't open, try copying and pasting the following link into the URL bar of your browser )

CENTURY 21 Rolling Oaks.